The original question(Natural Talent vs Passion & Determination) is very complicated and there is no easy answer. But here are a few observations from someone who has been around for a while.
No one is going to go very far(emphasis on VERY FAR) without talent, and lots of it. But there are lots of people who had lots and lots of talent who ultimately didn’t go anywhere with it for a variety of reasons. One of the most common I have observed is this: When a child shows an enormous gift for music(and I mean an ENORMOUS gift) it frequently ruins that child’s childhood. That child doesn’t have a childhood and becomes consumed, mostly from parental pressure, with the instrument and their ‘gift.’ By the time they reach early adulthood they are burned out and don’t have any desire to continue the instrument. I have observed this numerous times myself, and it’s a real tragedy.
There are other people who have natural talent(the ability to learn and understand music quickly, a natural dexterity, the ability to memorize at lightening speed, etc.) but don’t have any particular desire to pursue music. And so they won’t go very far.
Then there are people with little or no talent but enormous drive. Drive to succeed. Drive to be in the spotlight. Drive to play well. Whatever. They can succeed beyond anyone’s expectations, but still won’t be very good at what they do.
So in the end, the whole question is a complicated equation, with any number of components coming into play. And this makes it difficult if not impossible to predict who is ultimately going to succeed.